Winds, Unknown

Where the stock market will settle on December 31^st  of this year, I do not know. Where the stock market will settle on January 31^st, I do not know. Nor do you for that matter. A corollary, your stock has no value until you sell. As for loans against the value, that is for loaners to stomach the risk.

Another corollary, the value of your home unknown until you sell. As for equity loans…. Or your car. Or your collection of Betty Boop memorabilia. Unknown. And unknown.

The high and low temperatures for February 1^st where you live? Unknowns.

Number of hurricanes for the year? Unknown. Earthquakes over 7.0? Unknown.

Suicides in the US? Unknown. Above or below average, unknown.

Soybean crop in your state this growing season? Unknown.

Average price of movie tickets for the year? Unknown? Top-grossing domestic movie, unknown.

Broken bone this year? Unknown.

Unexpected loss of family member or friend? Unknown.

Okay, got it. Life’s thin ice over a moving current. How thin? Unknown.

Of course, thinking too much about any of this uncertainty is no way to live. Unless your thing is risk management.

Lightning striking you? Over an 80-year life span, about 1 in 80,000.

Dang sharks chewing on you? Around 1 in 2.7 million. The bees, and the like, have it—1 in 54,000 to be stung.

Killed by a mountain lion, around 1 in 132 million.

Hmmm, that lightning number doesn’t strike me as reasonable. National Geographic claims 1 in 700,000 to be killed annually, 1 in 3000 to be struck in a lifetime.

National Lightning Safety Institute is going with 1 in 280,000 chance of a strike during a year.

The British Medical Journal, 1 in 10 million. They also assert a 1 in 100 chance of dying from any cause this upcoming year.  

So, 99 out of 100 of us are off the hook this year, right? Unknown.

Happy 2019, People!

P.S. I am reminded of an administrator telling me that sometimes they—other admin—had to let Kaple be Kaple. Well, who the heck else would I be?

Unknown.